Excess Mortality in Canada (Jan 18th Update)
The bad news: Excess mortality figures in Canada are no longer being updated as of January 2024. Specifically, estimates of expected weekly deaths (and the excess mortality estimates calculated using this figure) are no longer updated, though updates on provisional weekly deaths counts continue.
The good news (for this month anyways): Although death counts were only released up to August 19th in December, expected deaths were reported up to September 2nd. Expected death figures do not change between reports, so expected death figures would be unchanged had there been a new excess mortality report this past month. The figures I am reporting are based on the provisional death counts released January 18th and the expected death figures released December 14th.
You can find the most recent excess mortality figures here and disaggregated by age and sex here.
The most recent weekly death counts are here and disaggregated by age and sex here.
Excess Mortality for All Ages
The following chart shows provisional estimates of weekly deaths alongside weekly expected deaths in Canada from March 1st, 2020 to September 2nd, 2023. It is important to note that there have been significant changes to 2022 and particularly 2023 figures with each update as data continues to accumulate. Thousands of deaths are added to previously-released figures every month. Even still, deaths are significantly higher than the number expected up to the most recently released data in September 2023.
The areas shaded blue in the chart above show periods where deaths exceed the number expected, or where there is positive excess mortality. Excess mortality, or deaths minus expected deaths, are plotted in the figure below.
From March 2020 to the end of the year, there were 18,705 deaths reported in excess of the number expected. This figure rose to 40,146 by the end of 2021, 82,483 by the end of 2022, and 100,119 by September 2nd, 2023.
From March 1st, 2020 to August 19th, 2023, there were 9.7% more deaths reported than expected. There were 7.8% more deaths than expected in 2020, 7.4% above expected in 2021, 14.4% above expected in 2022, and 8.7% above expected in 2023. Please note that the figures for 2022 and particularly for 2023 are the most incomplete.
Excess Mortality by Age Group
While data for all ages is available up to September 2nd, data for ages 0-44 is only available up to August 19th. So charts using data for this age period go up to this date rather than September 2nd.
Below is the number of weekly deaths (in orange) and the number of expected weekly deaths (in black) in Canada from March 1st, 2020 to August 19th, 2023 for each age group. Noting the axes is important in understanding why the raw number of excess deaths is higher in older age groups, yet the percentage by which deaths exceed expected deaths is higher in younger age groups. Expected deaths are understandably much lower in younger age groups, so lower number of excess deaths represent larger deviations from what is expected.
Weekly expected deaths fluctuate between around 250-290 for ages 0-44, 720-850 for ages 45-64, 2,200-2,800 for ages 65-84, and 1,700-2,400 for ages 85 and over.
There are roughly 100,000 excess deaths reported in Canada from March 1st, 2020 to August 19th, 2023. While those 85+ made up the majority of excess mortality early in the pandemic, the 65-84 age group now makes up the largest portion of excess deaths, with all age groups increasingly affected over time. By August 19th, there are roughly 13,100 excess deaths in the 0-44 age group, 17,100 in the 45-64 age group, 41,400 in the 65-84 age group, and 31,300 in the 85 and over age group.
This is the breakdown by age group and year. Fewer weeks are available for 2023 and the data is very incomplete, so I expect this figure is very undercounted. Even so, excess deaths in the 0-44 age group are already higher for 2023 than any other year.
The following 5 charts show the weekly percentage difference between deaths and expected deaths from March 1st, 2020 to the latest available date (September 2nd for all ages and most age groups, August 19th for ages 0-44). I used the same scale for the y-axis to allow for better comparison.
For all ages, percentage excess mortality peaks around 25% in May 2020, 30% in January 2022, and hovers around 20% above expected in September to December 2022.
Weekly percentage excess mortality in the 0-44 age group has increased markedly throughout the pandemic, peaking at 40% in September 2021, nearly 45% in December 2022, nearly 60% in April 2023, and nearing 70% above expected in July 2023. Even the most recent weeks exceed 55%.
For ages 45-64, percentage excess mortality peaks around 25% in June 2021 and January 2022, and 30% in December 2022.
For ages 65-84, percentage excess mortality peaks around 18% in April 2020 and briefly in July 2021, 25% in January 2022, and 20% in December 2022.
For those aged 85 and over, excess deaths peaked around 38% in May 2020, 30% in January 2022, and around 25% from June to December 2022.
Cumulatively, between March 1st, 2020 and August 19th, 2023, there were 27.2% more deaths than expected among those aged 0-44, 12.1% more deaths than expected among those aged 45-64, 9.3% more deaths than expected among those aged 65-84, and 8.4% above expected for those aged 85 and over.
For many age groups, percentage excess mortality is higher in more recent years despite delays in data reporting.
For ages 0-44, there are 45.4% more reported deaths than expected in 2023 up to August 19th.
For ages 45-64, percentage excess mortality is markedly higher in 2022 and 2023 than in 2020 or 2021, with the 2023 figure slightly lower than 2022 at this point.
A similar pattern is seen among those aged 65-84, though there is a larger decrease between 2022 and 2023 in the most recent reporting. The 2023 figure is still far above that seen in 2020 and 2021.
Percentage excess mortality among those aged 85 and over is presently lower for 2023 than in 2020, though much higher than in 2021. 2022 is the highest at nearly 15%.
Unfortunately, I will be unable to update excess mortality in the coming months as Statistics Canada is no longer releasing expected death figures for the time being. I was told by somebody who reached out to ask about this that they are planning on reviewing their model and releasing this information again in the future, but that is third-hand information and I am somewhat skeptical that more recent figures will be released and will have the same accuracy. But we can hope.
I hope everybody is doing well and apologize that I apologize for the lack of posts as my health issues continue. I continue to track this data and post updates as I am able to do so.